Yes, Putin's a tyrant — that doesn't mean his Ukraine demands are unreasonable

It is certainly true that, as American critics assert, Russian President Vladimir Putin's attitude towards civil liberties and political opponents is exactly what you'd expect of a former KGB agent. Yet it is also true that his current demands are not unreasonable. In fact, much of what Putin wants, the United States originally promised and then went back on.

Putin's central demand is that NATO remove troops from countries that joined the group of U.S.-allied nations after 1997. In 1990, under George H.W. Bush, Secretary of State James Baker repeatedly promised Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev and other Soviet leaders that if the USSR let the Warsaw Pact nations leave, NATO would not "move one inch eastward." As is detailed in declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents released in 2017, Bush and the leaders of West Germany, the U.K. and France gave similar assurances.

For example, according to the German record of the February 10, 1990 conversation between foreign ministers Hans-Dietrich Genscher of Germany and Eduard Shevardnadze of the USSR, Genscher told Shevardnadze "…one thing is certain: NATO will not expand to the east…As far as the non-expansion of NATO is concerned, this also applies in general."

Shevardnadze replied that he believed "everything the minister [Genscher] said."

When the German magazine Der Spiegel examined these documents and interviewed those involved, its reporters concluded that "there was no doubt that the West did everything it could to give the Soviets the impression that NATO membership was out of the question for countries like Poland, Hungary or Czechoslovakia." 

Today, those three former Warsaw Pact countries and two others, in addition to the three former Baltic Soviet republics and several formerly neutral countries, are members of NATO.

Putin and other Russian leaders have complained bitterly about this Western duplicity, complaints echoed by Gorbachev. Numerous others have made similar criticisms, including former CIA Director Robert Gates, influential diplomat-historian George Kennan, whose "Long Telegram" from Moscow in 1946 played a major role in launching the US’ Cold War “containment” policy, and Jack Matlock, the last U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union.

In 1995, 18 retired U.S. foreign service and State and Defense Department officers signed a letter denouncing these NATO recruitments, saying they would convince Russians that the U.S. was seeking to "isolate, encircle, and subordinate them." It is this needless provocation--NATO’s penetration into Russia's sphere--that is the root cause of the current conflict.

Some justify NATO's expansion by claiming Russia was a threat to its neighbors. Yet in the decade after the fall of the USSR, the Russian economy and military were in catastrophic condition. UN economists Vladimir Popov and Jomo Kwame Sundaram explain:

“[I]n Russia, output fell by 45% during 1989-1998, as death rates increased…equivalent to over 700,000 additional deaths annually. The huge collapse in output, living standards and life expectancy in the former Soviet Union during the 1990s without war, epidemic or natural disaster was unprecedented.” 

In 1998 the World Bank released a study about "income, inequality, and poverty during the remarkable period of collapse of Communism and the 'construction' of capitalism in eighteen formerly socialist countries...from the time of the early Gorbachevian reforms of 1987-88 to approximately 1996." The study, Income, Inequality, and Poverty during the Transition from Planned to Market Economy, described this as a "period of dramatic declines in income, the reappearance of diseases long forgotten, growing poverty and unemployment, and great uncertainty." The World Bank notes:

"The total value of goods and services produced by the vast area covered by the transition economies, extending from the Baltic and the Adriatic in the West to the Northern Pacific in the East, has declined since the transition started by at least one-quarter in real terms... After the Great Depression of 1929-33, this decline represents the largest peacetime contraction of world output.

"At the same time, poverty has increased substantially in the region. While it was estimated that, in 1989, the number of people living on less than $4 per day (at international prices) was 14 million (out of a population of approximately 360 million), it is now estimated that more than 140 million people live below the same poverty line." The study notes "this calculation does not include the countries at war or with civil strife."

The World Bank explains:

"Social transfers, and free health care and education, once taken for granted, are now rapidly shrinking. Mortality and morbidity, particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union, have increased substantially in some cases, without peace-time precedent... Unemployment, almost nonexistent (except in the former Yugoslavia) before the transition, affected more than 15 million people by 1996 and is still rising."

According to defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, “the Russian military was left with a shambles of an army and…utterly insufficient budget funding…the Russian army astonished outside observers with its weakness, low morale, poor discipline…the Russian soldiers [were] almost starving…many Russian army officers were forced to survive without a paycheck for as long as five months.”

The U.S. and NATO quickly took advantage — in 1992 military "contact teams" were sent to the Baltic nations, and the recruitment of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia began.

Today's advocates of a strong stand against Russia primarily cite Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea as justification. But this also is more complicated than it seems.

In 1954, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev administratively transferred the Crimea to the Ukraine, an essentially meaningless move at the time, since no one anticipated the demise and breakup of the Soviet Union several decades later. When Ukraine declared independence in 1991, it took Crimea along, even though there are four times as many ethnic Russians as Ukrainians in Crimea, which had been part of Russia since its annexation under Catherine the Great in 1783. Not long after Ukrainian independence, a pro-Russian popular movement arose in Crimea, which was repressed by the Ukrainian government.

In 2014, the U.S.-backed Maidan revolution overthrew the pro-Russian Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych, replacing it with a strongly pro-Western government. Russia, which at the time was ringed with U.S. military bases in Afghanistan, some of the former Soviet Central Asian republics and the Middle East — as well as NATO bases stretching from the Black Sea to the Baltic republics — feared this might lead to a NATO naval base at Sevastopol on the Black Sea, previously a major Russian and Soviet naval and commercial port. Faced with what it perceived as a potential strategic disaster, Russia seized Crimea and reincorporated it into Russia.

Putin is an amoral opportunist, and he certainly did not send troops into Crimea out of concern for the Crimean people. But it's nonetheless true that a majority of Crimeans supported a union with Russia, and voted accordingly in an election held over Crimea's new status.

Nonetheless, the Obama Administration angrily denounced Russia’s action, and imposed sanctions. US Secretary of State John Kerry condemned Russia’s “incredible act of aggression” and somehow kept a straight face as he said, “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext.”

Kerry apparently forgot that the last time a major power actually did exactly this was the US’ 2003 invasion of Iraq. Then-Senator Kerry voted in favor of the Iraq Resolution in 2002, which led to the Iraq War.

One might also compare the casualty counts of the Russian and American actions. Russia’s led to three deaths. America’s led to over 100,000.

The current conflict in eastern Ukraine is somewhat similar to the Crimean situation. After the Maidan revolution, the Ukrainian government repressed and sought to de-Russify populations in Donetsk and Luhansk, together known as the Donbas, a region that lies along Ukraine's southeastern border with Russia. Russian is the main language of 75% of residents in Donetsk and nearly 70% in Luhansk. A Russian separatist movement has emerged in the region, clearly supported by Putin's government.

Putin's other demands include banning the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe, a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, a U.S.-Russian agreement that both nations will refrain from deploying troops in areas where they could be seen as a threat to the other's security and a similar agreement not to send aircraft or warships into areas where they could strike each other's territory. None of these are inherently unreasonable; certainly the U.S. would never tolerate Russian military activity as close to U.S. territory as U.S. military activity is to Russia right now.

It's doubtful that Vladimir Putin wants war with the US. What he wants is for Russia's grievances to be taken seriously.